New York State is bracing for a hotter-than-normal summer as the energy grid faces a higher risk for blackouts.
This summer, New York’s energy grid will have its slimmest cushion of power in more than a decade, according to a report this month from the New York Independent System Operator, or NYISO.
Grid operators have 417 megawatts — enough power for more than 250,000 homes — to rely on as reserves when peak demand hits and all emergency measures have been exhausted. Such emergency measures include buying power at higher costs from neighboring states such as New Jersey and Pennsylvania.
The predicament is the result of the retirement of older power sources such as coal and nuclear plants in recent years. New sources of power generation haven’t come online fast enough. Meanwhile, electricity demand has increased.
“This assessment reflects the challenges of the grid in transition — declining reliability margins, performance issues with aging generators, and an absence of new dispatchable resources,” said Aaron Markham, vice president of operations for the NYISO, the nonprofit company that manages the state’s power grid.
While the NYISO said it has never had to rely on its available margin of power, it did have to resort to emergency measures during heat waves last summer. That prompted the NYISO to issue grid alerts for the first time, asking consumers to conserve energy. This could happen again this summer, with The National Weather Service predicting a hotter and drier season than normal.
This summer’s cushion is also less than half of last year’s, due to rising demand. A comfortable margin to work with is at least a couple of thousand megawatts, according to the NYISO.
The margin is calculated by adding up all the power sources currently available, while accounting for all energy conservation measures that can be activated during peak demand. The margin also includes any emergency purchases available from other states. What’s left over when peak demand hits and all those power sources are exhausted is the margin.
Kevin Lanahan, the NYISO's senior vice president of external affairs, said that operators want to prevent the worst-case scenario of having to intentionally power down parts of the grid to avoid a blackout.
“The end result that we're trying to avoid is that process of controlled outages. That is a last resort. That is the most undesirable outcome possible,” Lanahan said.
Electrification in the building and transportation sectors is a major driver for the current rise in demand, but future data centers and chip manufacturing will push the need for more power even further. During the summers, the NYISO said, the demand for cooling has also steadily risen over the past decade, especially with adoption of electric heat pumps to replace gas boilers.
Historically, New York operated with a comfortable cushion of thousands of megawatts, which consisted of a diverse mix of sources including nuclear and hydropower. Currently, the grid is heavily dependent on natural gas.
The retirement of Indian Point Energy Center, a nuclear facility located roughly 30 miles north of New York City, around five years ago left a 2 gigawatt hole — enough to power more than 1.5 million homes. The generation that’s left to carry the grid is aging. Lanahan said some of New York's power plants are among the oldest in the nation, and are less reliable as a result.
”When you have a healthy cushion and a healthy margin, that means you have more resources with more capability,” Lanahan said. ”We need more generation. We need more megawatts produced, and we need to examine the opportunities for repowering the old generation."
When calculating the summer margin of power, grid operators did not factor in the Champlain Hudson Power Express, a 339-mile transmission line from Canada, which will provide enough clean power for 1 million homes this summer. The project is scheduled to be completed this spring, and expected to be a substantial source of power for New York City during the summer peak.
Officials with NYC Emergency Management said they will stay in constant communication with NYISO and utility companies and will advise residents to conserve power in the event of peak demand.
Lanahan said New York residents can do their part to prevent the grid from going into emergency mode. Energy efficiency upgrades and appliances make a substantial difference in usage. Simply turning off lights and unplugging items that are not in use can also have a great impact.
”Every bit of efficiency matters, especially in those peak demand circumstances,” Lanahan said. “Raise the thermostat in summer and lower it in winter. It's that simple.”
