Few voters casting early ballots in NYC primaries that will test Mamdani's power

Young New York City voters flocked early to the polls in June 2025. This year, not so much.

Early voting turnout is down more than 50% compared to this time last year despite several competitive congressional and state legislative primary contests, including three federal races where Mayor Zohran Mamdani made high-stakes endorsements. The low number of early voters could be a sign that the people Mamdani brought to the polls for his own election may not be showing up for his preferred candidates.

A Gothamist analysis of voter data from the Board of Elections found that more than 62,000 voters have checked in at early voting sites citywide after the first four days of early voting. Last year, 131,882 voters had shown up for early voting by this same point, with unusually strong participation from young voters and voters in Brownstone Brooklyn.

This year, the voters are skewing older. Manhattan voters are turning out at nearly double the rate of voters in Brooklyn, the borough with the second-highest turnout and two of the most closely watched congressional primary contests.

“It's a good reminder of what last year was like in New York City politics with Zohran Mamdani on the ballot,” said Evan Roth Smith, a founding partner and pollster at Slingshot Strategies. He said last year’s high turnout was driven not just by Mamdani's politics, “but the person of Zohran Mamdani, and he's not on the ballot this year.”

Among the city’s four most competitive congressional primary contests, turnout among millennial and Gen Z voters plummeted in the first half of early voting compared to 2025 tallies. In the 7th Congressional District, which stretches from North Brooklyn to Astoria, turnout among voters aged 18 to 24 is down 65% compared to this time last year, while voters older than 65 are turning out at a solid pace.

In Manhattan's 12th and 13th Congressional Districts, where turnout among younger voters has also dropped precipitously, turnout for voters older than 75 has surpassed numbers at this point last year.

More than 1.1 million New Yorkers voted in the 2025 primary. Among that total, 385,184 voters — close to 35% — voted early.

This year, no single race has managed to break through and energize people like the mayor’s race did last year. Turnout is regressing toward the mean, approaching rates experts project for typical midterm primary contests. In 2022, when redistricting lawsuits led to two summer primaries, 354,000 people voted in the federal primaries, or 15% of eligible voters. In the 2018 federal primaries, it was just over 172,500, or 11% of eligible voters.

“ A midterm primary is what it is,” said Roth Smith, whose firm is working for Alex Bores, a state assemblymember from the Upper East Side who is one of the leading candidates in the crowded 12th Congressional District primary. “It's never gonna be the thing that galvanizes the city to take to the barricades, right?”

The lower turnout numbers are starkest in the 7th Congressional District, where Mamdani backed Assemblymember Claire Valdez to fill Rep. Nydia Velazquez's seat. Velazquez’s chosen successor is Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso. City Councilmember Julie Won is also in the race.

So far, more than 5,600 voters have turned out through day four of early voting, which is about 40% of what it was at this point in last year’s primary.

The 7th Congressional District has also seen a striking drop in younger voters. So far, only 350 18- to 24-year-olds have cast ballots in this district, compared to more than 1,000 voters in this age group who had voted last year. Older voters have also had a much stronger showing in this district as of day four.

One way to understand who is actually showing up at the polls so far is to look at where turnout within the district is highest.

“We can use that as a proxy for which demographic groups are turning out at the highest rates by race, by age, just knowing what we know about these districts,” said Adam Carlson, a Democratic pollster and founder of Zenith Research who is not working for any of the candidates in this primary.

The highest turnout in the 7th Congressional District as of day four is in the 50th Assembly District covering Greenpoint and Williamsburg in Brooklyn, an area with a larger number of younger, white voters.

In the closely watched 13th Congressional District, where Mamdani endorsed Darializa Avila Chevalier over incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat, more than 7,500 people have turned out through day four, which is 65% of the early voting turnout compared to last year. Within the 13th, the highest turnout is in the 70th Assembly District covering Central Harlem, where Assemblymember Jordan Wright is facing a challenge from Conrad Blackburn, a democratic socialist who has been endorsed by Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders.

Of the three races where Mamdani made a congressional endorsement, the 10th Congressional District is leading in turnout. Rep. Dan Goldman is running for his third term against mayoral candidate Brad Lander, a former city comptroller.

Close to 10,000 people have turned out in the 10th Congressional District, which is about half the turnout at this point last year in the district. Not surprisingly, the 52nd Assembly District in Downtown Brooklyn and Brooklyn Heights has the highest turnout within the 10th Congressional District. The 52nd Assembly District routinely has the highest turnout in the city.

The highest overall turnout citywide so far is in Manhattan’s 12th Congressional District, which includes the Upper West and Upper East Sides and runs south to Stuyvesant Town and Chelsea. It’s the district where Mamdani currently lives and will vote. He has declined to endorse a candidate in the race.

So far, 15,900 people have checked in for early voting in that district. There are eight Democratic candidates on the ballot seeking to replace retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler. The leading contenders include Bores and Assemblymember Micah Lasher, anti-Trump attorney George Conway, social media activist Jack Schlossberg and public health expert Nina Schwalbe.

Within the 12th Congressional District, the highest turnout is in the 69th Assembly District on the Upper West Side, Lasher’s current district. That’s where public defender Eli Northrup, who has endorsements from Mamdani, Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, is locked in a fierce primary fight with Stephanie Ruskay, a rabbi with support from a host of current and former Manhattan elected officials.

There are five more days of early voting and turnout tends to go up in the final weekend. Unlike the first weekend, there won’t be an NBA championship series to distract voters.

As the Knicks parade down the Canyon of Heroes in Manhattan to celebrate their NBA championship title on Thursday, the first 300 early voters at every poll site citywide can score a basketball-themed “I Voted” sticker.