Today's your last day of mild January weather as an Arctic front currently poised over the Mohawk Valley will sweep through the city this evening, bringing cold weather for the remainder of the week and setting the stage for a snow storm tomorrow afternoon. Our high this afternoon should reach the mid 40s. The front will arrive in the early evening and the temperature will drop down to near 20 degrees tomorrow morning. With a brisk northwesterly wind it will feel much colder than that.
Ground-level temperatures are going to hold steady near 20 all day tomorrow, which is obviously one necessary ingredient for a snowstorm. We also need an upper level disturbance to pass to our south so that a coastal low forms over the ocean. That's expected to happen tomorrow morning and we should see snow by the afternoon.
The forecasts for how much snow to expect are all over the place. The National Weather Service has the storm positioned to produce 4-8 inches of snow in the city, and higher amounts on eastern Long Island, from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. Add in some high winds to produce reduced visibilities as the snow blows around and below zero wind chills and it's enough to warrant a winter storm watch. AccuWeather and the Weather Channel aren't nearly as aggressive with the snow totals, saying we're more likely to get 1-3 inches. Presumably they are thinking the storm will pass slightly further out to sea. However much snow does fall it is likely to be of the very fluffy variety.
Beyond the snowfall it is just going to be cold. Wednesday's will probably stay in the teens and Thursday and Friday aren't going to be much warmer.
