On Monday, the New York City Department of Health released data on COVID deaths by zip code. Using this data, we created a map which showed striking differences between the distribution of deaths and positive COVID cases. To explore the new data more deeply, we've created a set of interactive scatterplots showing how deaths varied against key demographic data, which you can explore here:
Note you can switch between demographic views by clicking the dropdown menu on the top right of the interactive graphic above -- we'll include non-interactive graphics below as we move through the discussion.
First, looking at the scatterplot above, you can see a strong positive association between deaths and cases. Neighborhoods with more cases do have more deaths, which indicates that the COVID testing is generally capturing the true spread of the virus around the city. There are outliers, however. Some neighborhoods, like Starrett City at the top right, show more deaths than expected. That could indicate that the population has more underlying health problems or less access to medical care than residents in other areas.
Likewise, some neighborhoods, like Jackson Heights at the bottom right, show fewer deaths than expected, which could indicate that they have fewer underlying health problems or better access to medical care. It's also possible that the variation could be explained by different access to testing between neighborhoods: perhaps Jackson Heights simply had more access to testing, which would produce a higher positive per capita rate. The inverse could also be true for neighborhoods like Flushing and Brighton Beach, which show high death rates with relatively low positive test rates; it's possible the residents there simply had less access to testing, despite widespread illness.
Let's move on to a look at demographic correlations. First, median age:
Here we see no real correlation between increasing median age and death rates, which is surprising, since we know COVID-19 has a much higher fatality rate in older people. It's possible age is a necessary but not sufficient vulnerability -- that is, while age makes you vulnerable to the disease, if you don't get exposed you won't get sick, and some other risk factor drives the risk of exposure, perhaps household crowding.
Next, let's look at income:
As we saw when we looked at the distribution of positive cases, the richer neighborhoods have lower death rates. This most likely has to do with fewer residents working jobs in the service and frontline industries. Some zip codes in very wealthy neighborhoods downtown, including 10006 near City Hall, have had no deaths at all.
Next, household size:
Here it's clear that neighborhoods with more crowded households, especially in the Bronx and Queens, have seen higher rates of death, while less crowded neighborhoods in Manhattan have seen fewer deaths.
Next, asthma rates:
Poorer neighborhoods in the Bronx and Queens tend to have higher asthma rates, and this is positively correlated with more COVID deaths. This may not be because asthma leads to higher likelihood of death -- some research indicates it does not -- instead, higher asthma rates could be correlated with another demographic variation driving the association, such as more crowded household size, poorer general health, less access to medical care, etc.
Finally, let's look at race:
Here we can see that neighborhoods with more black and hispanic residents have seen more COVID deaths -- but again, because no research suggests that race is the primary determinant of deaths, these variations are probably driven by underlying issues of health, poverty, or access to medical care.
We will continue to examine this data closely, looking for other meaningful correlations. Let us know if you have any questions or ideas you'd like us to address.
