Gov. Kathy Hochul based her “all-of-the-above” energy policy on fossil fuels that she said would be cheaper and more reliable than renewable energy in New York.
But energy experts and advocates say the spike in gas and oil prices since the United States and Israel went to war against Iran demonstrates the flaws in the governor’s logic.
Average national gas prices were about $4.02 a gallon on Tuesday, according to data from AAA. That compares to $2.98 a gallon a month earlier, or a 32% increase. The New York state average on Tuesday was about $3.95.
The surge comes as Hochul hinges her push to roll back the renewable energy goals laid out in the state’s climate law on affordability. The law calls for a full clean energy transition by the end of the next decade.
New York is more than three years behind on its near-term goal of 70% renewable energy by 2030. Last week, the governor proposed delaying the regulations another four years and moving the 2030 goals 10 years into the future.
In a February memo to her office, the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority estimated that implementing the climate law could raise gasoline prices by more than $2 per gallon after 2030.
But environmental groups and energy experts say Hochul and NYSERDA’s findings are one-sided and don’t account for how clean power would weigh on costs if the state accelerated its energy transition.
Wind and solar are free commodities, but New York has so far failed to build the infrastructure to harness them as widely used energy sources, as Texas and California have done.
Green advocates also say the state didn’t base its projections on implementing New York’s actual climate law but instead on carbon pricing models that, according to the state, are more than five times that of California.
Energy experts and advocates say basing state energy policy on market-vulnerable fuels like oil and gas could end up costing more than renewables.
According to the Institute of Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, “the risks of fossil fuel dependence are forever. Absent an accelerated transition to renewable energy, commodity market volatility will continue to undermine energy economic plans.”
In response, some countries have adopted accelerated plans for clean energy. The BBC reported that Wales in the UK is speeding up its solar and wind projects in response to the conflict in the Middle East.
“If the governor's plan goes forward, we can expect to continue to be at the mercy of fossil fuel volatility,” said Jessica Azulay, executive director for Alliance for a Green Economy. “If we change course, then we have the opportunity to really insulate New York from crises like this and to reduce our reliance on the global markets and be in a better place financially.”
Transportation accounts for roughly one-third of the state’s greenhouse gas emissions.
New York does not have to be at the mercy of volatile oil prices, said Ira Joseph, senior research associate at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University.
He said the most effective ways to shield from energy volatility are through energy and fuel efficiency that reduce consumption, or policies that lead to changes in behavior, such as an outright ban on oil or raising prices to dissuade use.
“There are policy mechanisms out there to curb demand use, to curb demand growth, or even to create demand cuts,” Joseph said. “Creating enough taxes or tariffs or putting oil at a high enough price that creates a disincentive to consume.”
Advocates said renewable energy, coupled with battery storage, provides a pathway to not only reduce climate change pollution but also provide affordable energy.
“Once you build renewable energy, the fuel is free,” Azulay said. “You don't pay for the wind and the sun, so they're really insulated from the price spikes that affect fossil fuels.”
Hochul’s office says her all-the-above strategy includes continued use of fossil fuels because it’s based on reality. Her office points to other states that are also struggling to implement climate laws, such as Massachusetts and California.
The federal government's efforts to thwart offshore wind and eliminate subsidies have also put a deep dent in reaching renewable goals. Hochul said that many of these obstacles have made a clean power transition very difficult.
"The advocates would be better off focusing their energy on Washington, where the Republican White House and Congress have completely disinvested from renewable energy,” Hochul spokesperson Ken Lovett said. “Governor Hochul is focused on her all-of-the-above approach that includes more renewables, nuclear, and other energy options designed to keep the lights on for New Yorkers and costs down."
The Alliance for Clean Energy argues that more renewable energy also means more local jobs. New York gets its fossil fuels from other states and countries, which sends money for fuel out of the state’s economy. While money spent on wind and solar goes towards the labor to operate and maintain the facilities.
“An investment in our own state is a better way to circulate the money than to send the money overseas,” said Marguerite Wells, executive director of the alliance. “The sun and wind do not charge us, and they keep showing up.”
Wells said New Yorkers can expect the affordability crisis to continue with the governor’s all-the-above energy strategy and rollbacks on the climate law.
As the system currently works, fossil fuels are heavily and permanently subsidized while renewable energy sources have far fewer subsidies, which are only temporary.
“The best way to get people to stop using fossil fuels and start using anything else they can,” Wells said. ”If that's the direction that the state really wants to go, they need to double down on that now, not pull back.”
