Last year brought a record-breaking surge in the number of homicides nationally compared to previous years, FBI statistics released Monday found, despite an overall drop in violent crimes. 

An estimated 4,901 more homicides took place across the country in 2020, as compared to 2019, an increase to 21,570 homicides, pushing up the U.S. homicide rate to 6.5 per 100,000 people, from 5.1. 

In New York state, the trend coincided with the upward trajectory across the country: The report notes the 2020 homicide rate was 4.2, up from 2.9 in 2019—which is still below the national average. But the current FBI data doesn’t tell the whole story for New York. 

Only 15 states submit all their crime data through the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS), the FBI’s most recently adopted crime-recording system, and New York is not one of them. Currently, New York is one of several states that voluntarily participates in submitting NIBRS data to the FBI’s report meant to estimate the number of violent crimes in the nation. In fact, the FBI only recorded 22 homicides in 2020 in New York state, through law enforcement agencies that “cover 15% of the total population.” 

Christopher Herrmann, an assistant professor in the Department of Law & Police Science at John Jay College of Criminal Justice and a former crime analyst at the NYPD focusing on citywide shootings and homicides, says that while there may have been a delay in submitting the data to the FBI, the problem nonetheless remains. 

“The NIBRS system takes much longer to process, but it was a horrible year for New York City,” Herrmann, who specializes in crime mapping, said. “The NYPD might be proud that it’s a little lower, but comparing it to one of the worst increases on record doesn’t make much sense. It’s kind of like saying ‘at least we’re not as bad as last year’, but last year was the worst increase in over a decade.” 

The NYPD’s latest CompStat report has so far recorded 348 murders to date in 2021, down from 357 during the same period last year. The department recorded 462 murders for all of 2020. While the latest NYPD data has the murder rate dropping 2.5% this year so far, they are up nearly 46% since 2019. 

The NYPD has not yet responded to a request for comment, but local law enforcement unions and advocates have blamed the rise in violent crime on social justice protests and bail reform.

The numbers speak to a different reality to some neighborhood groups on the ground. Iesha Sekou, the founder and CEO of Street Corner Resources, a Harlem-based non-profit focusing on eliminating gun violence, said she’s noticed a marked change in the community over the last few years. 

“I know at least two situations where somebody was trying to de-escalate a situation and lost their life,” said Sekou. “I don’t think it all has to do with bail reform, but Covid played a part. People are feeling uncomfortable and unsafe and we’re seeing people who are not sure what to expect when they go outside.” 

City data has found that Los Angeles, Philadelphia, Houston and Chicago all had higher murder rates than New York in 2020.

And while Herrmann believes that the overall crime numbers in the city were worrying, his own research has found that violence hasn’t spread to new parts of the city. Historical data gathered by the city on felony offenses by precinct show that areas in Harlem, the Bronx, south Brooklyn, northern Queens and Staten Island have experienced an uptick in murders from 2019 to  2020. 

“What really happened was the areas that were already experiencing high numbers of shooting victims and homicides had even worse numbers in 2020,” Herrmann said. “The problem is that the bad got worse.” 

Joseph Gedeon reported this story for the Gothamist/WNYC’s Race & Justice Unit. If you have a tip, some data, or a story idea, email him at [email protected] or reach out on Twitter @JGedeon1.

This article has been updated to reflect that 2020 homicide rate nationally is 6.5 per 100,000 people, and 5.1 per 100,000 people in 2019; for New York state, the 2020 rate is 4.2 per 100,000, up from 2.9 per 100,000 in 2019. These rates are not percentages.