Early voting numbers appear to show Democrat Analilia Mejia has a sizable advantage over Republican Joe Hathaway ahead of their one and only debate Wednesday in a special election on April 16 to fill the congressional seat vacated by New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherill through the rest of 2026.

According to vote-by-mail ballots that have already been counted, Democrats are out-returning ballots 3-1 compared to Republicans. Mejia, a progressive backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders, pulled off a stunning upset in February over several better-funded and well-established Democrats in the primary.

The largely suburban North Jersey district is considered safe for Democrats. But voters in the state’s 11th Congressional District have also historically favored moderate candidates, and political experts say Hathaway will likely use the debate to try to position himself as a centrist.

“If [Hathaway] can paint [Mejia] as super progressive, far left on a whole range of issues, and at the same time promote himself as a moderate, not-Trumper, middle of the road, that to me makes it potentially a much closer election,” said Seton Hall political professor Matt Hale.

The debate is scheduled for 4 p.m. Wednesday. The virtual event is hosted by the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics at Rider University and the New Jersey Globe.

Here’s a look at what to expect:

Mejia to move to the center? Maybe not.

It’s a political strategy as old as time: Appeal to your base in a primary, then pivot to a more moderate central position in the general election.

No Democrat ran further to the left in the Democratic primary than Mejia. She was the only candidate who called for abolishing ICE and was willing to call Israel’s war in Gaza a genocide.

It was a departure for the district. Sherrill’s slightly left-of-center brand of politics earned her easy wins in her four congressional elections. Prior to her tenure, the district voted a Republican into office for more than three decades before it was redrawn after the 2020 census.

But Mejia has not backed away from left-of-center positions as she’s moved into the general election. In addition to abolishing ICE, she has called for undoing Trump’s tax cuts for billionaires, supporting Medicare for All and curbing support for Israel. And New Jersey political watchdogs don’t expect her to move more to the center during the debate.

“The district is very much on her side when it comes to those issues. So it's going to be less about pivoting and more about highlighting certain issues where she's closer to the median voter in the district,” said Dan Cassino, politics professor at Fairleigh Dickinson University.

Micah Rasmussen, director of the Rebovich Institute and one of the debate moderators, said he expects the electorate to look more like a primary election given that the special election is happening in April.

“In this special election environment, the key to [Mejia’s] success is basically the same as it was in the primary — can you turn out many of those same voters?” he said. “I think she's going to do that by offering them the same positions that she already has.”

Distancing from Trump

Hathaway has done what few Republicans have been willing to do — break with President Donald Trump on certain policy points.

The Ivy League-educated mayor from Randolph has broken with Trump on several issues. He has called for “common sense” reforms to ICE, including equipping immigration enforcement agents with body cameras and banning them from wearing masks. He also opposed the Trump administration’s plan to open an ICE detention center in Roxbury.

Hathaway also criticized Trump over freezing about $18 billion in congressionally appropriated funding for the Gateway tunnel project connecting New Jersey and New York.

“The president should not be using Gateway as a pawn,” Hathaway told Politico in a March interview.

Cassino said viewers should expect Hathaway to continue putting space between him and the president’s policies.

“If you're Hathaway, you really do have to distance yourself from Trump a little bit, but not so much that you alienate the Republicans who are actually in the district who like Trump,” Cassino said. “So it is a fine line he has to walk.”

Hale said Mejia may be most vulnerable when it comes to Israel. Hathaway has called her statements antisemitic while arguing that the United States should “stand in lockstep” with Israel.

“The district is Democrat and everybody expects Mejia is going to win. But it also has a fairly sizable Jewish population,” Hale said. “She's made some statements about Israel that are pretty controversial and pretty inflammatory for people in the Jewish community.”

The debate will air live on the New Jersey Globe’s Facebook page and YouTube channel.