Governor Andrew Cuomo on Monday said that parts of New York state, including New York City, would shut down again should hospitals reach 90% of their capacity, the most significant sign that officials are worried that the rising number of coronavirus hospitalizations could threaten to strain the healthcare system once again.
In New York City, 20% of hospital beds and 27% of ICU beds are currently available, based on a seven-day rolling average, according to the state. Should the regional bed availability shrink by another 10%, NYC would once again face strict shutdown orders that were implemented when virus cases peaked in the spring.
New York City health officials have reported that the number of new hospitalizations is around 122 patients a day. On Monday, Mayor Bill de Blasio announced that the city would add new coronavirus hospital admissions per 100,000 residents to its list of daily reported metrics, a hospitalization rate that is currently at 2.3%. The number has steadily gone up for more than a week.
In terms of the state-measured hospitalization rate, both New York City and Long Island currently have .02% of its population hospitalized for COVID-19, lower than other New York regions. In the Finger Lakes area, the hospitalization rate is .05%, the highest in the state.
In a first step, Cuomo said he would close indoor dining in New York City should the hospitalization rate fail to stabilize or flatten within five days. He was not optimistic about the city turning the tide, stating that he did not expect to see the hospitalization rate flatten or decrease in the coming days.
A closure could come as early as Monday, he said, adding, "We are looking at continued increases from now to mid-January."
New York City currently allows indoor dining at 25% capacity.
In other parts of the state, rising hospitalization rates would result in a reduction of indoor dining from 50% to 25% capacity.
"You can't overwhelm your hospitals," he said. "If we don't change our behavior, that is the absolute reality of the situation."
Other states are also grappling with growing hospitalizations. Last week, California established 85% hospital capacity as a trigger for regional shutdowns.
But New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy said Monday that he would not close indoor dining even as the state has reported record high numbers of new daily cases.
“That is not, right now, on the table for us,” Murphy said during a press briefing in Trenton. “If we saw explicit waves of transmission coming out of the indoor dining experience, obviously we’d have a different approach.”
Should hospitals be filled to 90% in any New York region, the ensuing shutdown would follow the same restrictions as those of the so-called red zone. All non-essential businesses would close. Schools would close temporarily and reopen under increased testing capacity per the state's rules. All mass gatherings would be prohibited.
Cuomo also said he would order hospitals to expand their capacity by 25% in preparation for the coming surge. The state is also asking retired nurses and doctors to enlist at hospitals.
Dr. Anthony Fauci appears virtually at a press conference with Governor Andrew Cuomo.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease specialist, joined Cuomo's press conference via Zoom. Like other public health experts, he warned about rising infections and hospitalizations in the coming weeks when people are expected to travel and gather for the holidays. He noted most states are already experiencing a bump in cases from Thanksgiving.
"You have a surge upon a surge and before you can handle that, more people are going to travel for Christmas," Fauci said. "The middle of January can be a really dark time for us."
New York state currently has a gathering limit of no more than 10 people.
Fauci said that even 10 people may "be a bit too much."
"It’s not just the number, it might be the people coming out of town," he added.
Cuomo on Monday said that 4,602 people were hospitalized across the state with COVID-19 and that 80 people died. Both numbers are the highest they have been in around six months.
